The 76ers, who were number 1 in the Eastern Conference last season, are 3-2, with ugly losses to the Nets and Knicks. In 5 games they have allowed 2 different teams to go on massive runs in the 4th quarter and played like a complete disaster in the second quarter of the Knicks game. Joel Embiid, despite saying it is not an excuse, is hurt already. Ben Simmons is not playing due to personal reasons and there is still a trade request surrounding him. The Sixers look flat out bad.
I am not panicking though.
But it doesn’t look good. But I think it’s pretty simple. The 76ers need Ben back or to replace him somehow. Through 5 games the Sixers are dead last in Pace and 20th in defense. Two big categories in which a player like Ben Simmons would really help. Or just a good point guard that isn’t 20 years old would most likely help. Shake Milton just came back so he may help, but Shake isn’t PG and shouldn’t be playing that role in my opinion. But they have no other choice.
The Sixers stressed ball movement this preseason, and honestly looked great in the preseason, but to start the season their Pace of play is 97.1, dead last in the league. In order to win in this league teams need to focus on pace.
So, what is Pace? Simply it’s the number of possessions a team gets in a game. There is a mathematical calculation out there, but I am sure no one actually cares. I don’t. But the goal of increased Pace is important. Generate quick high percentage shots and use defense to get more possessions. It’s what made the Warriors death line up so deadly.
Now, the 76ers aren’t the Warriors. No one is. And having Joel Embiid will always slow your Pace down. That’s not a problem though, especially when Joel is playing at an Elite level and when he has another guy on the team that will push the tempo and help on defense. They don’t have that right now.
Being bad at defense, having no real point of attack defenders outside of Matisse, and playing slow, not getting possessions is not a recipe for winning. Now, one can point to their offensive rating and say that it is top 5 in the league, actually number 2 in offensive rating.
Offensive rating is just the number or points per 100 possessions. In the top 10 offenses right now the Sixers are the lowest in possessions per game, because they are last in the league in Pace. Every top 10 offensive team has over 100 Pace, except for the 76ers and the Knicks. The offense is working averaging 113 points per 100 possessions, but they aren’t getting 100 possessions per game.
Add in a below average defense and it’s not a winning recipe. And that’s why at times when teams want to ramp it up, the Sixers look out of sorts. If you can’t get stops and don’t get enough possessions, you aren’t going to win.
But the Silver Lining.
Ben Simmons is essentially hurt right, in theory. I mean he isn’t playing, and the Sixers have a huge hole where Ben would be, and there is 35 million in salary that isn’t helping the team on court. Teams just can’t win like that. But there will be a solution.
Ben Simmons apparently addressed the team, and is working through some mental struggles to get ready to be mentally prepared to play again. And the Sixers are working with him. There hasn’t been much talk on the trade front, as the team still says they want Ben back playing with them, but the idea a trade can happen is still a possibility.
That’s the silver lining, Ben will either be back playing or traded. This is not the team that the 76ers will be at the end of the season. The goal now is to tread water as best they can. They have a tough schedule coming up. Hawks, Blazers, Bulls (x2), Knicks, and Bucks all within the next week, plus the Pistons in the middle of that run. For a team already struggling on defense and guard play this can be a scary run.
A big losing streak will certainly damper the start of the season even more than it already is. With Joel hurt, reportedly by Ramona Shelburne, couldn’t walk for two days after the Pelicans game, and has very clearly struggled at times this could be a problem going forward. Especially until the Simmons’ situation is being figured out.
By no means should fans or the team throw the towel in. We are 5 games in, nothing is set in stone about any team. And learning life without Ben was always going to be an adjustment for them. But Pace and defense are going to be trends that I personally follow. Bring the Pace up and fix the defense and you’ll see this team look night and day compared to right now. And get Joel healthy.
Until the Ben Simmons’ situation is resolved one way or another this season is basically a wash. There is 0 chance a team can win with a 20 year old point guard, who isn’t naturally a point guard, and their second best player not playing, taking up 35 million in salary they could use on other players (via trades obviously).
Improvements can still happen. And I believe the Ben situation could be resolved at some point, with him on the court or traded. Joel’s knee is concerning but if he is playing through it, it can’t be that bad. I am holding real judgement until we have closure on Ben’s situation but for now, I have concerns for sure. Hopefully, they fix them.
Tonight versus the Hawks, in South Philly, would be a good time.